El Niño Project (Part 1)

20 June, 2014

A bunch of Azimuth Project members like to program, so they started the Azimuth Code Project… but now it’s getting more lively! We’re trying to understand and predict the climate phenomenon known as El Niño.

Why? Several reasons:

• It’s the biggest source of variability in the Earth’s climate on times scales between a year and a decade. It causes weather disturbances in many regions, especially near the Pacific Ocean. The last really big one happened in 1997-1998, and we’re waiting for the next.



• It’s hard to predict for more than 6 months in advance. It’s not periodic: it’s a quasi-periodic phenomenon that occurs across the tropical Pacific Ocean every 3 to 7 years.



• It matters for global warming. A lot of heat gets stored in the ocean, and a lot comes back into the atmosphere during an El Niño. So, the average surface air temperature of the Earth may reach a new high when the next El Niño comes.



• In February 2014, a paper in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences caused a stir by claiming to be able to predict the next El Niño more than 6 months in advance using ideas from network theory. Moreover, it claimed an El Niño would start in late 2014 with a 75% probability.

• The math involved in this paper is interesting, not too complicated, and maybe we can improve on it. At the very least, it raises a lot of questions worth studying. And it’s connected to network theory, one of the Azimuth Project’s specialties!

We are already hard at work on this project. We could use help from computer programmers, mathematicians, and physicists: there is lots to do! But it makes sense to start by explaining the issues and what we’ve done so far. We’ll do that in a series of posts here.

This first post will not get into many details. Instead, I just want to set the stage with some basic information about El Niño.

El Niño and La Niña

This animation produced by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology shows how the cycle works:



During La Niña years, trade winds blow across the Pacific Ocean from the Americas to Asia in a strong way. So, warm surface water gets pushed toward Asia. Warmer oceans there create more clouds and rain there. The other side of the Pacific gets cooler, so there is less rain in many parts of the Americas.

During El Niño years, trade winds in the tropical Pacific weaken, and blobs of warm surface water move back toward the Americas. So, the eastern part of the Pacific warms up. We generally get more rain in the Americas… but less in Asia.

ENSO

The cycle of El Niños and La Niñas is often called the El Niño/Southern Oscillation or ENSO. Why? Because this cycle is linked to the Southern Oscillation: an oscillation in the difference in air pressure between the eastern and western Pacific:



The top graph shows variations in the water temperature of the tropical eastern Pacific ocean: when it’s hot we have an El Niño. The bottom graph shows the air pressure in Tahiti minus the air pressure in Darwin, Australia — up to a normalization constant, this called the Southern Oscillation Index, or SOI. If you stare at the graphs a while, you’ll see they’re quite strongly correlated—or more precisely, anticorrelated, since one tends to go up when the other goes down. So, remember:

A big negative SOI goes along with an El Niño!

There are other ways besides the SOI to tell if an El Niño is happening. We’ll talk later about these quantities, how they’re defined, how you can get the data online, what we’ve done with this data, and what we want to do.

Is a big El Niño coming?

To conclude, I just want you to watch this short movie. NASA’s Jason-2 satellite has detected blobs of hot water moving east toward America! This has made some scientists—not just those using network theory—suspect a big El Niño is on its way, perhaps a repeat of the one that started in 1997.

On the other hand, on June 17th the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administation (NOAA) said that trends are now running “counter to typical El Niño development”. So we’ll have to wait and see… and meanwhile, try to predict!

References

If you can’t wait to dive in, start here:

Experiments in El Niño detection and prediction, Azimuth Forum.

To join this conversation, join the forum by following these instructions:

Forum help.

This is the paper that got us excited:

• Josef Ludescher, Avi Gozolchiani, Mikhail I. Bogachev, Armin Bunde, Shlomo Havlin, and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Very early warning of next El Niño, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, February 2014.

A lot of the methodology is explained here:

• Josef Ludescher, Avi Gozolchiani, Mikhail I. Bogachev, Armin Bunde, Shlomo Havlin, and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Improved El Niño forecasting by cooperativity detection, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 30 May 2013. (For more discussion, go to the Azimuth Forum.)


Warming Slowdown? (Part 2)

5 June, 2014

guest post by Jan Galkowski

5. Trends Are Tricky

Trends as a concept are easy. But trends as objective measures are slippery. Consider the Keeling Curve, the record of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration first begun by Charles Keeling in the 1950s and continued in the face of great obstacles. This curve is reproduced in Figure 8, and there presented in its original, and then decomposed into three parts, an annual sinusoidal variation, a linear trend, and a stochastic remainder.

Keeling CO2 concentration curve at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, showing original data and its decomposition into three parts, a sinusoidal annual variation, a linear trend, and a stochastic residual.

Figure 8. Keeling CO2 concentration curve at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, showing original data and its decomposition into three parts, a sinusoidal annual variation, a linear trend, and a stochastic residual.

The question is, which component represents the true trend, long term or otherwise? Are linear trends superior to all others? The importance of a trend is tied up with to what use it will be put. A pair of trends, like the sinusoidal and the random residual of the Keeling, might be more important for predicting its short term movements. On the other hand, explicating the long term behavior of the system being measured might feature the large scale linear trend, with the seasonal trend and random variations being but distractions.

Consider the global surface temperature anomalies of Figure 5 again. What are some ways of determining trends? First, note that by “trends” what’s really meant are slopes. In the case where there are many places to estimate slopes, there are many slopes. When, for example, a slope is estimated by fitting a line to all the points, there’s just a single slope such as in Figure 9. Local linear trends can be estimated from pairs of points in differing sizes of neighborhoods, as depicted in Figures 10 and 11. These can be averaged, if you like, to obtain an overall trend.

Global surface temperature anomalies relative to a 1950-1980 baseline, with long term linear trend atop.

Figure 9. Global surface temperature anomalies relative to a 1950-1980 baseline, with long term linear trend atop.

Global surface temperature anomalies relative to a 1950-1980 baseline, with randomly  placed trends from local linear  having 5 year support atop.

Figure 10. Global surface temperature anomalies relative to a 1950-1980 baseline, with randomly placed trends from local linear having 5 year support atop.

Global surface temperature anomalies relative to a 1950-1980 baseline, with randomly  placed trends from local linear  having 10 year support atop.

Figure 11. Global surface temperature anomalies relative to a 1950-1980 baseline, with randomly placed trends from local linear having 10 year support atop.

Lest the reader think constructing lots of linear trends on varying neighborhoods is somehow crude, note it has a noble history, being used by Boscovich to estimate Earth’s ellipticity about 1750, as reported by Koenker.

There is, in addition, a question of what to do if local intervals for fitting the little lines overlap, since these are then (on the face of it) not independent of one another. There are a number of statistical devices for making them independent. One way is to do clever kinds of random sampling from a population of linear trends. Another way is to shrink the intervals until they are infinitesimally small, and, so, necessarily independent. That definition is just the point slope of a curve going through the data, or its first derivative. Numerical methods for estimating these exist—and to the degree they succeed, they obtain estimates of the derivative, even if in doing do they might use finite intervals.

One good way of estimating derivatives involves using a smoothing spline, as sketched in Figure 6, and estimating the derivative(s) of that. Such an estimate of the derivative is shown in Figure 12 where the instantaneous slope is plotted in orange atop the data of Figure 6. The value of the derivative should be read using the scale to the right of the graph. The value to the left shows, as before, temperature anomaly in degrees. The cubic spline itself is plotted in green in that figure. Here it’s smoothing parameter is determined by generalized cross-validation, a principled means of taking the subjectivity out of the choice of smoothing parameter. That is explained a bit more in the caption for Figure 12. (See also Cr1979.)

Global surface temperature anomalies relative to a 1950-1980 baseline,  with instaneous numerical estimates of derivatives  in orange atop.

Figure 12. Global surface temperature anomalies relative to a 1950-1980 baseline, with instaneous numerical estimates of derivatives in orange atop, with scale for the derivative to the right of the chart. Note how the value of the first derivative never drops below zero although its magnitude decreases as time approaches 2012. Support for the smoothing spline used to calculate the derivatives is obtained using generalized cross validation. Such cross validation is used to help reduce the possibility that a smoothing parameter is chosen to overfit a particular data set, so the analyst could expect that the spline would apply to as yet uncollected data more than otherwise. Generalized cross validation is a particular clever way of doing that, although it is abstract.

What else might we do?

We could go after a really good approximation to the data of Figure 5. One possibility is to use the Bayesian Rauch-Tung-Striebel (“RTS”) smoother to get a good approximation for the underlying curve and estimate the derivatives of that. This is a modification of the famous Kalman filter, the workhorse of much controls engineering and signals work. What that means and how these work is described in an accompanying inset box.

Using the RTS smoother demands variances of the signal be estimated as priors. The larger the ratio of the estimate of the observations variance to the estimate of the process variance is, the smoother the RTS solution. And, yes, as the reader may have guessed, that makes the result dependent upon initial conditions, although hopefully educated initial conditions.

Global surface temperature anomalies relative to a 1950-1980 baseline, with fits using the Rauch-Tung-Striebel smoother placed atop.

Figure 13. Global surface temperature anomalies relative to a 1950-1980 baseline, with fits using the Rauch-Tung-Striebel smoother placed atop, in green and dark green. The former uses a prior variance of 3 times that of the Figure 5 data corrected for serial correlation. The latter uses a prior variance of 15 times that of the Figure 5 data corrected for serial correlation. The instantaneous numerical estimates of the first derivative derived from the two solutions are shown in orange and brown, respectively, with their scale of values on the right hand side of the chart. Note the two solutions are essentially identical. If compared to the smoothing spline estimate of Figure 12, the derivative has roughly the same shape, but is shifted lower in overall slope, and the drift up and below a mean value is less.

The RTS smoother result for two process variance values of 0.118 ± 002 and high 0.59 ± 0.02 is shown in Figure 13. These are 3 and 15 times the decorrelated variance value for the series of 0.039 ± 0.001, estimated using the long term variance for this series and others like it, corrected for serial correlation. One reason for using two estimates of the process variance is to see how much difference that makes. As can be seen from Figure 13, it does not make much.

Combining all six methods of estimating trends results in Figure 14, which shows the overprinted densities of slopes.

Empirical probability density functions for slopes of temperatures versus years, from each of 6 methods.

Figure 14. In a stochastic signal, slopes are random variables. They may be correlated. Fitting of smooth models can be thought of as a way of sampling these random variable. Here, empirical probability density functions for slopes of temperatures versus years are displayed, using each of the 6 methods of estimating slopes. Empirical probability densities are obtained using kernel density estimation. These are preferred to histograms by statisticians because the latter can distort the density due to bin size and boundary effects. The lines here correspond to: local linear fits with 5 years separation (dark green trace), the local linear fits with 10 years separation (green trace), the smoothing spline (blue trace), the RTS smoother with variance 3 times the corrected estimate for the data as the prior variance (orange trace, mostly hidden by brown trace), and the RTS smoother with 15 times the corrected estimate for the data (brown trace). The blue trace can barely be seen because the RTS smoother with the 3 times variance lies nearly atop of it. The slope value for a linear fit to all the points is also shown (the vertical black line).

Note the spread of possibilities given by the 5 year local linear fits. The 10 year local linear fits, the spline, and the RTS smoother fits have their mode in the vicinity of the overall slope. The 10 year local linear fits slope has broader support, meaning it admits more negative slopes in the range of temperature anomalies observed. The RTS smoother results have peaks slightly below those for the spline, the 10 year local linear fits, and the overall slope. The kernel density estimator allows the possibility of probability mass below zero, even though the spline, and two RTS smoother fits never exhibit slopes below zero. This is a Bayesian-like estimator, since the prior is the real line.

Local linear fits to HadCRUT4 time series were used by Fyfe, Gillet, and Zwiers in their 2013 paper and supplement. We do not know the computational details of those trends, since they were not published, possibly due to Nature Climate Change page count restrictions. Those details matter. From these calculations, which, admittedly, are not as comprehensive as those by Fyfe, Gillet, and Zwiers, we see that robust estimators of trends in temperature during the observational record show these are always positive, even if the magnitudes vary. The RTS smoother solutions suggest slopes in recent years are near zero, providing a basis for questioning whether or not there is a warming “hiatus”.

The Rauch-Tung-Striebel smoother is an enhancement of the Kalman filter. Let y_{\kappa} denote a set of univariate observations at equally space and successive time steps \kappa. Describe these as follows:

  1. y_{\kappa} = \mathbf{G} \mathbf{x}_{\kappa} + \varepsilon_{\kappa}
  2. \mathbf{x}_{\kappa + 1} = \mathbf{H} \mathbf{x}_{\kappa} + \boldsymbol\gimel_{\kappa}
  3. \varepsilon_{\kappa} \sim \mathcal{N}(0, \sigma^{2}_{\varepsilon})
  4. \boldsymbol\gimel_{\kappa} \sim \mathcal{N}(0, \boldsymbol\Sigma^{2}_{\eta})

The multivariate \mathbf{x}_{\kappa} is called a state vector for index \kappa. \mathbf{G} and \mathbf{H} are given, constant matrices. Equations (5.3) and (5.4) say that the noise component of observations and states are distributed as zero mean Gaussian random variables with variance \sigma^{2}_{\varepsilon} and covariance \boldsymbol\Sigma^{2}_{\eta}, respectively. This simple formulation in practice has great descriptive power, and is widely used in engineering and data analysis. For instance, it is possible to cast autoregressive moving average models (“ARMA”) in this form. (See Kitigawa, Chapter 10.) The key idea is that equation (5.1) describes at observation at time \kappa as the result of a linear regression on coefficients \mathbf{x}_{\kappa}, where \mathbf{G} is the corresponding design matrix. Then, the coefficients themselves change with time, using a Markov-like development, a linear regression of the upcoming set of coefficients, \mathbf{x}_{\kappa+1}, in terms of the current coefficients, \mathbf{x}_{\kappa}, where \mathbf{H} is the design matrix.

For the purposes here, a simple version of this is used, something called a local level model (Chapter 2) and occasionally a Gaussian random walk with noise model (Section 12.3.1). In that instance, \mathbf{G} and \mathbf{H} are not only scalars, they are unity, resulting in the simpler

  1. y_{\kappa} = x_{\kappa} + \varepsilon_{\kappa}
  2. x_{\kappa + 1} = x_{\kappa} + \eta_{\kappa}
  3. \varepsilon_{\kappa} \sim \mathcal{N}(0, \sigma^{2}_{\varepsilon})
  4. \eta_{\kappa} \sim \mathcal{N}(0, \sigma^{2}_{\eta})

with scalar variances \sigma^{2}_{\varepsilon} and \sigma^{2}_{\eta}.

In either case, the Kalman filter is a way of calculating \mathbf{x}_{\kappa}, given y_{1}, y_{2}, \dots, y_{n}, values for \mathbf{G} and \mathbf{H}, and estimates for \sigma^{2}_{\varepsilon} and \sigma^{2}_{\eta}. Choices for \mathbf{G} and \mathbf{H} are considered a model for the data. Choices for \sigma^{2}_{\varepsilon} and \sigma^{2}_{\eta} are based upon experience with Y_{\kappa} and the model. In practice, and within limits, the bigger the ratio

  1. \displaystyle{\frac{\sigma^{2}_{\varepsilon}}{\sigma^{2}_{\eta}}}

the smoother the solution for \mathbf{x}_{\kappa} over successive \kappa.

Now, the Rauch-Tung-Striebel extension of the Kalman filter amounts to (a) interpreting it in a Bayesian context, and (b) using that interpretation and Bayes Rule to retrospectively update \mathbf{x}_{\kappa-1}, \mathbf{x}_{\kappa-2}, \dots, \mathbf{x}_{1} with the benefit of information through y_{\kappa} and the current state \mathbf{x}_{\kappa}. Details won’t be provided here, but are described in depth in many texts, such as Cowpertwait and Metcalfe, Durbin and Koopman, and Särkkä.

Finally, commenting on the observation regarding subjectivity of choice in the ratio of variances, mentioned in Section 5 at the discussion of their choice “smoother” here has a specific meaning. If this ratio is smaller, the RTS solution tracks the signal more closely, meaning its short term variability is higher. A small ratio has implications for forecasting, increasing the prediction variance.

6. Internal Decadal Variability

The recent IPCC AR5 WG1 Report sets out the context in its Box TS.3:

Hiatus periods of 10 to 15 years can arise as a manifestation of internal decadal climate variability, which sometimes enhances and sometimes counteracts the long-term externally forced trend. Internal variability thus diminishes the relevance of trends over periods as short as 10 to 15 years for long-term climate change (Box 2.2, Section 2.4.3). Furthermore, the timing of internal decadal climate variability is not expected to be matched by the CMIP5 historical simulations, owing to the predictability horizon of at most 10 to 20 years (Section 11.2.2; CMIP5 historical simulations are typically started around nominally 1850 from a control run). However, climate models exhibit individual decades of GMST trend hiatus even during a prolonged phase of energy uptake of the climate system (e.g., Figure 9.8; Easterling and Wehner, 2009; Knight et al., 2009), in which case the energy budget would be balanced by increasing subsurface-ocean heat uptake (Meehl et al., 2011, 2013a; Guemas et al., 2013).

Owing to sampling limitations, it is uncertain whether an increase in the rate of subsurface-ocean heat uptake occurred during the past 15 years (Section 3.2.4). However, it is very likely that the climate system, including the ocean below 700 m depth, has continued to accumulate energy over the period 1998-2010 (Section 3.2.4, Box 3.1). Consistent with this energy accumulation, global mean sea level has continued to rise during 1998-2012, at a rate only slightly and insignificantly lower than during 1993-2012 (Section 3.7). The consistency between observed heat-content and sea level changes yields high confidence in the assessment of continued ocean energy accumulation, which is in turn consistent with the positive radiative imbalance of the climate system (Section 8.5.1; Section 13.3, Box 13.1). By contrast, there is limited evidence that the hiatus in GMST trend has been accompanied by a slower rate of increase in ocean heat content over the depth range 0 to 700 m, when comparing the period 2003-2010 against 1971-2010. There is low agreement on this slowdown, since three of five analyses show a slowdown in the rate of increase while the other two show the increase continuing unabated (Section 3.2.3, Figure 3.2). [Emphasis added by author.]

During the 15-year period beginning in 1998, the ensemble of HadCRUT4 GMST trends lies below almost all model-simulated trends (Box 9.2 Figure 1a), whereas during the 15-year period ending in 1998, it lies above 93 out of 114 modelled trends (Box 9.2 Figure 1b; HadCRUT4 ensemble-mean trend 0.26\,^{\circ}\mathrm{C} per decade, CMIP5 ensemble-mean trend 0.16\,^{\circ}\mathrm{C} per decade). Over the 62-year period 1951-2012, observed and CMIP5 ensemble-mean trends agree to within 0.02\,^{\circ}\mathrm{C} per decade (Box 9.2 Figure 1c; CMIP5 ensemble-mean trend 0.13\,^{\circ}\mathrm{C} per decade). There is hence very high confidence that the CMIP5 models show long-term GMST trends consistent with observations, despite the disagreement over the most recent 15-year period. Due to internal climate variability, in any given 15-year period the observed GMST trend sometimes lies near one end of a model ensemble (Box 9.2, Figure 1a, b; Easterling and Wehner, 2009), an effect that is pronounced in Box 9.2, Figure 1a, because GMST was influenced by a very strong El Niño event in 1998. [Emphasis added by author.]

The contributions of Fyfe, Gillet, and Zwiers (“FGZ”) are to (a) pin down this behavior for a 20 year period using the HadCRUT4 data, and, to my mind, more importantly, (b) to develop techniques for evaluating runs of ensembles of climate models like the CMIP5 suite without commissioning specific runs for the purpose. This, if it were to prove out, would be an important experimental advance, since climate models demand expensive and extensive hardware, and the number of people who know how to program and run them is very limited, possibly a more limiting practical constraint than the hardware.

This is the beginning of a great story, I think, one which both advances an understanding of how our experience of climate is playing out, and how climate science is advancing. FGZ took a perfectly reasonable approach and followed it to its logical conclusion, deriving an inconsistency. There’s insight to be won resolving it.

FGZ try to explicitly model trends due to internal variability. They begin with two equations:

  1. M_{ij}(t) = u^{m}(t) + \text{Eint}_{ij}(t) + \text{Emod}_{i}(t),
    i = 1, \dots, N^{m}, j= 1, \dots, N_{i}
  2. O_{k}(t) = u^{o}(t) + \text{Eint}^{o}(t) + \text{Esamp}_{k}(t),
    k = 1, \dots, N^{o}

i is the model membership index. j is the index of the i^{\text{th}} model’s j^{\text{th}} ensemble. k runs over bootstrap samples taken from HadCRUT4 observations. Here, M_{ij}(t) and O_{k}(t) are trends calculated using models or observations, respectively. u^{m}(t) and u^{o}(t) denote the “true, unknown, deterministic trends due to external forcing” common to models and observations, respectively. \text{Eint}_{ij}(t) and \text{Eint}^{o}(t) are the perturbations to trends due to internal variability of models and observations. \text{Emod}_{i}(t) denotes error in climate model trends for model i. \text{Esamp}_{k}(t) denotes the sampling error in the k^{\text{th}} sample. FGZ assume \text{Emod}_{i}(t) are exchangeable with each other as well, at least for the same time t. (See [Di1977, Di1988, Ro2013c, Co2005] for more on exchangeability.) Note that while the internal variability of climate models \text{Eint}_{ij}(t) varies from model to model, run to run, and time to time, the ‘internal variability of observations’, namely \text{Eint}^{o}(t), is assumed to only vary with time.

The technical innovation FGZ use is to employ bootstrap resampling on the observations ensemble of HadCRUT4 and an ensemble of runs of 38 CMIP5 climate models to perform a two-sample comparison [Ch2008, Da2009, ]. In doing so, they explicitly assume, in the framework above, exchangeability of models. (Later, in the same work, they also make the same calculation assuming exchangeability of models and observations, an innovation too detailed for this present exposition.)

So, what is a bootstrap? In its simplest form, a bootstrap is a nonparametric, often robust, frequentist technique for sampling the distribution of a function of a set of population parameters, generally irrespective of the nature or complexity of that function, or the number of parameters. Since estimates of the variance of that function are themselves functions of population parameters, assuming the variance exists, the bootstrap can also be used to estimate the precision of the first set of samples, where “precision” is the reciprocal of variance. For more about the bootstrap, see the inset below..

In the case in question here, with FGZ, the bootstrap is being used to determine if the distribution of surface temperature trends as calculated from observations and the distribution of surface temperature trends as calculated from climate models for the same period have in fact similar means. This is done by examining differences of paired trends, one coming from an observation sample, one coming from a model sample, and assessing the degree of discrepancy based upon the variances of the observations trends distribution and of the models trends distribution.

The equations (6.1) and (6.2) can be rewritten:

  1. M_{ij}(t) - \text{Eint}_{ij}(t) = u^{m}(t) + \text{Emod}_{i}(t),
    i = 1, \dots, N^{m}, j = 1, \dots, N_{i}
  2. O_{k}(t) - \text{Eint}^{o}(t) = u^{o}(t) + \text{Esamp}_{k}(t),
    k = 1, \dots, N^{o}

moving the trends in internal variability to the left, calculated side. Both \text{Eint}_{ij}(t) and \text{Eint}^{o}(t) are not directly observable. Without some additional assumptions, which are not explicitly given in the FGZ paper, such as

  1. \text{Eint}_{ij}(t) \sim \mathcal{N}(0, \Sigma_{\text{model int}})
  2. \text{Eint}^{o}(t) \sim \mathcal{N}(0, \Sigma_{\text{obs int}})

we can’t really be sure we’re seeing O_{k}(t) or O_{k}(t) - \text{Eint}^{o}(t), or at least O_{k}(t) less the mean of \text{Eint}^{o}(t). The same applies to M_{ij}(t) and \text{Eint}_{ij}(t). Here equations (6.5) and (6.6) describe internal variabilities as being multivariate but zero mean Gaussian random variables. \Sigma_{\text{model int}} and \Sigma_{\text{obs int}} are covariances among models and among observations. FGZ essentially say these are diagonal with their statement “An implicit assumption is that sampling uncertainty in [observation trends] is independent of uncertainty due to internal variability and also independent of uncertainty in [model trends]“. They might not be so, but it is reasonable to suppose their diagonals are strong, and that there is a row-column exchange operator on these covariances which can produce banded matrices.

7. On Reconciliation

The centerpiece of the FGZ result is their Figure 1, reproduced here as Figure 15. Their conclusion, that climate models do not properly capture surface temperature observations for the given periods, is based upon the significant separation of the red density from the grey density, even when measuring that separation using pooled variances. But, surely, a remarkable feature of these graphs is not only the separation of the means of the two densities, but the marked difference in size of the variances of the two densities.

Figure 1 from Fyfe, Gillet, Zwiers.

Why are climate models so less precise than HadCRUT4 observations? Moreover, why do climate models disagree with one another so dramatically? We cannot tell without getting into CMIP5 details, but the same result could be obtained if the climate models came in three Gaussian populations, each with a variance 1.5x that of the observations, but mixed together. We could also obtain the same result if, for some reason, the variance of HadCRUT4 was markedly understated.

That brings us back to the comments about HadCRUT4 made at the end of Section 3. HadCRUT4 is noted for “drop outs” in observations, where either the quality of an observation on a patch of Earth was poor or the observation was missing altogether for a certain month in history. (To be fair, both GISS and BEST have months where there is no data available, especially in early years of the record.) It also has incomplete coverage [Co2013]. Whether or not values for patches are imputed in some way, perhaps using spatial kriging, or whether or not supports to calculate trends are adjusted to avoid these omissions are decisions in use of these data which are critical to resolving the question [Co2013, Gl2011].

As seen in Section 5, what trends you get depends a lot on how they are done. FGZ did linear trends. These are nice because means of trends have simple relationships with the trends themselves. On the other hand, confining trend estimation to local linear trends binds these estimates to being only supported by pairs of actual samples, however sparse these may be. This has the unfortunate effect of producing a broadly spaced set of trends which, when averaged, appear to be a single, tight distribution, close to the vertical black line of Figure 14, but erasing all the detail available by estimating the density of trends with a robust function of the first time derivative of the series. FGZ might be improved by using such, repairing this drawback and also making it more robust against HadCRUT4’s inescapable data drops. As mentioned before, however, we really cannot know, because details of their calculations are not available. (Again, this author suspects this fault lies not with FGZ but a matter of page limits.)

In fact, that was indicated by a recent paper from Cowtan and Way, arguing that the limited coverage of HadCRUT4 might explain the discrepancy Fyfe, Gillet, and Zwiers found. In return Fyfe and Gillet argued that even admitting the corrections for polar regions which Cowtan and Way indicate, the CMIP5 models fall short in accounting for global mean surface temperatures. What could be wrong? In the context of ensemble forecasts depicting future states of the atmosphere, Wilks notes (Section 7.7.1):

Accordingly, the dispersion of a forecast ensemble can at best only approximate the [probability density function] of forecast uncertainty … In particular, a forecast ensemble may reflect errors both in statistical location (most or all ensemble members being well away from the actual state of the atmosphere, but relatively nearer to each other) and dispersion (either under- or overrepresenting the forecast uncertainty). Often, operational ensemble forecasts are found to exhibit too little dispersion …, which leads to overconfidence in probability assessment if ensemble relative frequencies are interpreted as estimating probabilities.

In fact, the IPCC reference, Toth, Palmer and others raise the same caution. It could be that the answer to why the variance of the observational data in the Fyfe, Gillet, and Zwiers graph depicted in Figure 15 is so small is that ensemble spread does not properly reflect the true probability density function of the joint distribution of temperatures across Earth. These might be “relatively nearer to each other” than the true dispersion which climate models are accommodating.

If Earth’s climate is thought of as a dynamical system, and taking note of the suggestion of Kharin that “There is basically one observational record in climate research”, we can do the following thought experiment. Suppose the total state of the Earth’s climate system can be captured at one moment in time, no matter how, and the climate can be reinitialized to that state at our whim, again no matter how. What happens if this is done several times, and then the climate is permitted to develop for, say, exactly 100 years on each “run”? What are the resulting states? Also suppose the dynamical “inputs” from the Sun, as a function of time, are held identical during that 100 years, as are dynamical inputs from volcanic forcings, as are human emissions of greenhouse gases. Are the resulting states copies of one another?

No. Stochastic variability in the operation of climate means these end states will be each somewhat different than one another. Then of what use is the “one observation record”? Well, it is arguably better than no observational record. And, in fact, this kind of variability is a major part of the “internal variability” which is often cited in these literature, including by FGZ.

Setting aside the problems of using local linear trends, FGZ’s bootstrap approach to the HadCRUT4 ensemble is an attempt to imitate these various runs of Earth’s climate. The trouble is, the frequentist bootstrap can only replicate values of observations actually seen. (See inset.) In this case, these replications are those of the HadCRUT4 ensembles. It will never produce values in-between and, as the parameters of temperature anomalies are in general continuous measures, allowing for in-between values seems a reasonable thing to do.

No algorithm can account for a dispersion which is not reflected in the variability of the ensemble. If the dispersion of HadCRUT4 is too small, it could be corrected using ensemble MOS methods (Section 7.7.1.) In any case, underdispersion could explain the remarkable difference in variances of populations seen in Figure 15. I think there’s yet another way.

Consider equations (6.1) and (6.2) again. Recall, here, i denotes the i^{th} model and j denotes the j^{th} run of model i. Instead of k, however, a bootstrap resampling of the HadCRUT4 ensembles, let \omega run over all the 100 ensemble members provided, let \xi run over the 2592 patches on Earth’s surface, and let \kappa run over the 1967 monthly time steps. Reformulate equations (6.1) and (6.2), instead, as

  1. M_{\kappa} = u_{\kappa} + \sum_{i = 1}^{N^{m}} x_{i} \left(\text{Emod}_{i\kappa} + \text{Eint}_{i\kappa}\right)
  2. O_{\kappa} = u_{\kappa} + \sum_{\xi = 1}^{2592} \left(x_{0} \text{Eint}^{\zeta}_{\kappa} + x_{\xi} \text{Esamp}_{\xi\kappa}\right)

Now, u_{\kappa} is a common trend at time tick \kappa and \text{Emod}_{i\kappa} and \text{Eint}_{i\kappa} are deflections from from that trend due to modeling error and internal variability in the i^{\text{th}} model, respectively, at time tick \kappa. Similarly, \text{Eint}^{\zeta}_{\kappa} denotes deflections from the common trend baseline u due to internal variability as seen by the HadCRUT4 observational data at time tick \kappa, and \text{Esamp}_{\xi\kappa} denotes the deflection from the common baseline due to sampling error in the \xi^{\text{th}} patch at time tick \kappa. x_{\iota} are indicator variables. This is the setup for an analysis of variance or ANOVA, preferably a Bayesian one (Sections 14.1.6, 18.1). In equation (7.1), successive model runs j for model i are used to estimate \text{Emod}_{i\kappa} and \text{Eint}_{i\kappa} for every \kappa. In equation (7.2), different ensemble members \omega are used to estimate \text{Eint}^{\zeta}_{\kappa} and \text{Esamp}_{\xi\kappa} for every \kappa. Coupling the two gives a common estimate of u_{\kappa}. There’s considerable flexibility in how model runs or ensemble members are used for this purpose, opportunities for additional differentiation and ability to incorporate information about relationships among models or among observations. For instance, models might be described relative to a Bayesian model average [Ra2005]. Observations might be described relative to a common or slowly varying spatial trend, reflecting dependencies among \xi patches. Here, differences between observations and models get explicitly allocated to modeling error and internal variability for models, and sampling error and internal variability for observations.

More work needs to be done to assess the proper virtues of the FGZ technique, even without modification. A device like that Rohde used to compare BEST temperature observations with HadCRUT4 and GISS, one of supplying the FGZ procedure with synthetic data, would be perhaps the most informative regarding its character. Alternatively, if an ensemble MOS method were devised and applied to HadCRUT4, it might better reflect a true spread of possibilities. Because a dataset like HadCRUT4 records just one of many possible observational records the Earth might have exhibited, it would be useful to have a means of elaborating what those other possibilities were, given the single observational trace.

Regarding climate models, while they will inevitably disagree from a properly elaborated set of observations in the particulars of their statistics, in my opinion, the goal should be to strive to match the distributions of solutions these two instruments of study on their first few moments by improving both. While, statistical equivalence is all that’s sought, we’re not there yet. Assessing parametric uncertainty of observations hand-in-hand with the model builders seems to be a sensible route. Indeed, this is important. In review of the Cowtan and Way result, one based upon kriging, Kintisch summarizes the situation as reproduced in Table 1, a reproduction of his table on page 348 of the reference [Co2013, Gl2011, Ki2014]:

TEMPERATURE TRENDS
1997-2012
Source Warming (^{\circ}\,\mathrm{C}/decade)
Climate models 0.102-0.412
NASA data set 0.080
HadCRUT data set 0.046
Cowtan/Way 0.119
Table 1. Getting warmer.

New method brings measured temperatures closer to projections. Added in quotation: “Climate models” refers to the CMIP5 series. “NASA data set” is GISS. “HadCRUT data set” is HadCRUT4. “Cowtan/Way” is from their paper. Note values are per decade, not per year.

Note that these estimates of trends, once divided by 10 years/decade to convert to a per year change in temperature, all fall well within the slope estimates depicted in the summary Figure 14. Note, too, how low the HadCRUT trend is.

If the FGZ technique, or any other, can contribute to this elucidation, it is most welcome.

As an example Lee reports how the GLOMAP model of aerosols was systematically improved using such careful statistical consideration. It seems likely to be a more rewarding way than “black box” treatments. Incidently, Dr Lindsay Lee’s article was runner-up in the Significance/Young Statisticians Section writers’ competition. It’s great to see bright young minds charging in to solve these problems!

The bootstrap is a general name for a resampling technique, most commonly associated with what is more properly called the frequentist bootstrap. Given a sample of observations, \mathring{Y} = \{y_{1}, y_{2}, \dots, y_{n}\}, the bootstrap principle says that in a wide class of statistics and for certain minimum sizes of n, the sampling density of a statistic h(Y) from a population of all Y, where \mathring{Y} is a single observation, can be approximated by the following procedure. Sample \mathring{Y} M times with replacement to obtain M samples each of size n called \tilde{Y}_{k}, k = 1, \dots, M. For each \tilde{Y}_{k}, calculate h(\tilde{Y}_{k}) so as to obtain H = h_{1}, h_{2}, \dots, h_{M}. The set H so obtained is an approximation of the sampling density of h(Y) from a population of all Y. Note that because \mathring{Y} is sampled, only elements of that original set of observations will ever show up in any \tilde{Y}_{k}. This is true even if Y is drawn from an interval of the real numbers. This is where a Bayesian bootstrap might be more suitable.

In a Bayesian bootstrap, the set of possibilities to be sampled are specified using a prior distribution on Y [Da2009, Section 10.5]. A specific observation of Y, like \mathring{Y}, is use to update the probability density on Y, and then values from Y are drawn in proportion to this updated probability. Thus, values in Y never in \mathring{Y} might be drawn. Both bootstraps will, under similar conditions, preserve the sampling distribution of Y.

8. Summary

Various geophysical datasets recording global surface temperature anomalies suggest a slowdown in anomalous global warming from historical baselines. Warming is increasing, but not as fast, and much of the media attention to this is reacting to the second time derivative of temperature, which is negative, not the first time derivative, its rate of increase. Explanations vary. In one important respect, 20 or 30 years is an insufficiently long time to assess the state of the climate system. In another, while the global surface temperature increase is slowing, oceanic temperatures continue to soar, at many depths. Warming might even decrease. None of these seem to pose a challenge to the geophysics of climate, which has substantial support both from experimental science and ab initio calculations. An interesting discrepancy is noted by Fyfe, Gillet, and Zwiers, although their calculation could be improved both by using a more robust estimator for trends, and by trying to integrate out anomalous temperatures due to internal variability in their models, because much of it is not separately observable. Nevertheless, Fyfe, Gillet, and Zwiers may have done the field a great service, making explicit a discrepancy which enables students of datasets like the important HadCRUT4 to discover an important limitation, that their dispersion across ensembles does not properly reflect the set of Earth futures which one might wish they did and, in their failure for users who think of the ensemble as representing such futures, give them a dispersion which is significantly smaller than what we might know.

The Azimuth Project can contribute, and I am planning subprojects to pursue my suggestions in Section 7, those of examining HadCRUT4 improvements using MOS ensembles, a Bayesian bootstrap, or the Bayesian ANOVA described there. Beyond trends in mean surface temperatures, there’s another more challenging statistical problem involving trends in sea levels which awaits investigation [Le2012b, Hu2010].

Working out these kinds of details is the process of science at its best, and many disciplines, not least mathematics, statistics, and signal processing, have much to contribute to the methods and interpretations of these series data. It is possible too much is being asked of a limited data set, and perhaps we have not yet observed enough of climate system response to say anything definitive. But the urgency to act responsibly given scientific predictions remains.

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Warming Slowdown? (Part 1)

29 May, 2014

guest post by Jan Galkowski

1. How Heat Flows and Why It Matters

Is there something missing in the recent climate temperature record?

Heat is most often experienced as energy density, related to temperature. While technically temperature is only meaningful for a body in thermal equilibrium, temperature is the operational definition of heat content, both in daily life and as a scientific measurement, whether at a point or averaged. For the present discussion, it is taken as given that increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide trap and re-radiate Earth blackbody radiation to its surface, resulting in a higher mean blackbody equilibration temperature for the planet, via radiative forcing [Ca2014a, Pi2012, Pi2011, Pe2006].

The question is, how does a given joule of energy travel? Once on Earth, does it remain in atmosphere? Warm the surface? Go into the oceans? And, especially,if it does go into the oceans, what is its residence time before released to atmosphere? These are important questions [Le2012a, Le2012b]. Because of the miscibility of energy, questions of residence time are very difficult to answer. A joule of energy can’t be tagged with a radioisotope like matter sometimes can. In practice, energy content is estimated as a constant plus the time integral of energy flux across a well-defined boundary using a baseline moment.

Variability is a key aspect of natural systems, whether biological or large scale geophysical systems such as Earth’s climate [Sm2009]. Variability is also a feature of statistical models used to describe behavior of natural systems, whether they be straightforward empirical models or models based upon ab initio physical calculations. Some of the variability in models captures the variability of the natural systems which they describe, but some variability is inherent in the mechanism of the models, an artificial variability which is not present in the phenomena they describe. No doubt, there is always some variability in natural phenomena which no model captures. This variability can be partitioned into parts, at the risk of specifying components which are not directly observable. Sometimes they can be inferred.

Models of planetary climate are both surprisingly robust and understood well enough that appreciable simplifications, such as setting aside fluid dynamism, are possible, without damaging their utility [Pi2012]. Thus, the general outline of what long term or asymptotic and global consequences arise when atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations double or triple are known pretty well. More is known from the paleoclimate record.What is less certain are the dissipation and diffusion mechanisms for this excess energy and its behavior in time [Kr2014, Sh2014a, Sh2014b, Sa2011]. There is keen interest in these mechanisms because of the implications differing magnitudes have for regional climate forecasts and economies [Em2011, Sm2011, Le2010]. Moreover, there is a natural desire to obtain empirical confirmation of physical calculations, as difficult as that might be, and as subjective as judgments regarding quality of predictions might be [Sc2014, Be2013, Mu2013a, Mu2013b, Br2006, Co2013, Fy2013, Ha2013, Ha2014, Ka2013a, Sl2013, Tr2013, Mo2012, Sa2012, Ke2011a, Kh2008a, Kh2008b, Le2005, De1982].

Observed rates of surface temperatures in recent decades have shown a moderating slope compared with both long term statistical trends and climate model projections [En2014, Fy2014, Sc2014, Ta2013, Tr2013, Mu2013b, Fy2013, Fy2013s, Be2013]. It’s the purpose of this article to present this evidence, and report the research literature’s consensus on where the heat resulting from radiative forcing is going, as well as sketch some implications of that containment.

2. Tools of the Trade

I’m Jan Galkowski. I’m a statistician and signals engineer, with an undergraduate degree in Physics and a Masters in EE & Computer Science. I work for Akamai Technologies of Cambridge, MA, where I study time series of Internet activity and other data sources, doing data analysis primarily using spectral and Bayesian computational methods.

I am not a climate scientist, but am keenly interested in the mechanics of oceans, atmosphere, and climate disruption. I approach these problems from that of a statistician and physical dynamicist. Climate science is an avocation. While I have 32 years experience doing quantitative analysis, primarily in industry, I have found that the statistical and mathematical problems I encounter at Akamai have remarkable parallels to those in some geophysics, such as hydrology and assessments of sea level rise, as well as in some population biology. Thus, it pays to read their literature and understand their techniques. I also like to think that Akamai has something significant to contribute to this problem of mitigating forcings of climate change, such as enabling and supporting the ability of people to attend business and science meetings by high quality video call rather than hopping on CO2-emitting vehicles.

As the great J. W. Tukey said:

The best thing about being a statistician is that you get to play in everyone’s backyard.

Anyone who doubts the fun of doing so, or how statistics enables such, should read Young.

3. On Surface Temperatures, Land and Ocean

Independently of climate change, monitoring surface temperatures globally is a useful geophysical project. They are accessible, can be measured in a number of ways, permit calibration and cross-checking, are taken at convenient boundaries between land-atmosphere or ocean-atmosphere, and coincide with the living space about which we most care. Nevertheless, like any large observational effort in the field, such measurements need careful assessment and processing before they can be properly interpreted. The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (“BEST”) Project represents the most comprehensive such effort, but it was not possible without many predecessors, such as HadCRUT4, and works by Kennedy, et al and Rohde [Ro2013a, Mo2012, Ke2011a, Ke2011b, Ro2013b].

Surface temperature is a manifestation of four interacting processes. First, there is warming of the surface by the atmosphere. Second, there is lateral heating by atmospheric convection and latent heat in water vapor. Third, during daytime, there is warming of the surface by the Sun or insolation which survives reflection. Last, there is warming of the surface from below, either latent heat stored subsurface, or geologic processes. Roughly speaking, these are ordered from most important to least. These are all manifestations of energy flows, a consequence of equalization of different contributions of energy to Earth.

Physically speaking, the total energy of the Earth climate system is a constant plus the time integral of energy of non-reflected insolation less the energy of the long wave radiation or blackbody radiation which passes from Earth out to space, plus geothermal energy ultimately due to radioisotope decay within Earth’s aesthenosphere and mantle, plus thermal energy generated by solid Earth and ocean tides, plus waste heat from anthropogenic combustion and power sources [Decay]. The amount of non-reflected insolation depends upon albedo, which itself slowly varies. The amount of long wave radiation leaving Earth for space depends upon the amount of water aloft, by amounts and types of greenhouse gases, and other factors. Our understanding of this has improved rapidly, as can be seen by contrasting Kiehl, et al in 1997 with Trenberth, et al in 2009 and the IPCC’s 2013 WG1 Report [Ki1997, Tr2009, IP2013]. Steve Easterbrook has given a nice summary of radiative forcing at his blog, as well as provided a succinct recap of the 2013 IPCC WG1 Report and its take on energy flows elsewhere at the The Azimuth blog. I refer the reader to those references for information about energy budgets, what we know about them, and what we do not.

Some ask whether or not there is a physical science basis for the “moderation” in global surface temperatures and, if there is, how that might work. It is an interesting question, for such a conclusion is predicated upon observed temperature series being calibrated and used correctly, and, further, upon insufficient precision in climate model predictions, whether simply perceived or actual. Hypothetically, it could be that the temperature models are not being used correctly and the models are correct, and which evidence we choose to believe depends upon our short-term goals. Surely, from a scientific perspective, what’s wanted is a reconciliation of both, and that is where many climate scientists invest their efforts. This is also an interesting question because it is, at its root, a statistical one, namely, how do we know which model is better [Ve2012, Sm2009, Sl2013, Ge1998, Co2006, Fe2011b, Bu2002]?

A first graph, Figure 1, depicting evidence of warming is, to me, quite remarkable. (You can click on this or any figure here, to enlarge it.)

Ocean temperatures at depth

Figure 1. Ocean temperatures at depth, from Yale Climate Forum.

A similar graph is shown in the important series by Steve Easterbrook recapping the recent IPCC Report. A great deal of excess heat is going into the oceans. In fact, most of it is, and there is an especially significant amount going deep into the southern oceans, something which may have implications for Antarctica.

This can happen in many ways, but one dramatic way is due to a phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation} (“ENSO”). Another way is storage by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (“AMOC”) [Ko2014].

The trade winds along the Pacific equatorial region vary in strength. When they are weak, the phenomenon called El Niño is seen, affecting weather in the United States and in Asia. Evidence for El Niño includes elevated sea-surface temperatures (“SSTs”) in the eastern Pacific. This short-term climate variation brings increased rainfall to the southern United States and Peru, and drought to east Asia and Australia, often triggering large wildfires there.

The reverse phenomenon, La Niña, is produced by strong trades, and results in cold SSTs in the eastern Pacific, and plentiful rainfall in east Asia and northern Australia. Strong trades actually pile ocean water up against Asia, and these warmer-than-average waters push surface waters there down, creating a cycle of returning cold waters back to the eastern Pacific. This process is depicted in Figures 2 and 3. (Click to see a nice big animated version.)

t-dyn


Figure 2. Oblique view of variability of Pacific equatorial region from El Niño to La Niña and back. Vertical height of ocean is exaggerated to show piling up of waters in the Pacific warm pool.

sst-wind-cur-eqt-20c


Figure 3. Trade winds vary in strength, having consequences for pooling and flow of Pacific waters and sea surface temperatures.

At its peak, a La Niña causes waters to accumulate in the Pacific warm pool, and this results in surface heat being pushed into the deep ocean. To the degree to which heat goes into the deep ocean, it is not available in atmosphere. To the degree to which the trades do not pile waters into the Pacific warm pool and, ultimately, into the depths, that warm water is in contact with atmosphere [Me2011]. There are suggestions warm waters at depth rise to the surface [Me2013].

Strong trade winds cause the warm surface waters of the equatorial Pacific to pile up against Asia

Figure 4. Strong trade winds cause the warm surface waters of the equatorial Pacific to pile up against Asia.

Documentation of land and ocean surface temperatures is done in variety of ways. There are several important sources, including Berkeley Earth, NASA GISS, and the Hadley Centre/Climatic Research Unit (“CRU”) data sets [Ro2013a, Ha2010, Mo2012] The three, referenced here as BEST, GISS, and HadCRUT4, respectively, have been compared by Rohde. They differ in duration and extent of coverage, but allow comparable inferences. For example, a linear regression establishing a trend using July monthly average temperatures from 1880 to 2012 for Moscow from GISS and BEST agree that Moscow’s July 2010 heat was 3.67 standard deviations from the long term trend [GISS-BEST]. Nevertheless, there is an important difference between BEST and GISS, on the one hand, and HadCRUT4.

BEST and GISS attempt to capture and convey a single best estimate of temperatures on Earth’s surface, and attach an uncertainty measure to each number. Sometimes, because of absence of measurements or equipment failures, there are no measurements, and these are clearly marked in the series. HadCRUT4 is different. With HadCRUT4 the uncertainty in measurements is described by a hundred member ensemble of values, actually a 2592-by-1967 matrix. Rows correspond to observations from 2592 patches, 36 in latitude, and 72 in longitude, with which it represents the surface of Earth. Columns correspond to each month from January 1850 to November 2013. It is possible for any one of these cells to be coded as “missing”. This detail is important because HadCRUT4 is the basis for a paper suggesting the pause in global warming is structurally inconsistent with climate models. That paper will be discussed later.

4. Rumors of Pause

Figure 5 shows the global mean surface temperature anomalies relative to a standard baseline, 1950-1980. Before going on, consider that figure. Study it. What can you see in it?

Global surface temperature anomalies relative to a 1950-1980 baseline

Figure 5. Global surface temperature anomalies relative to a 1950-1980 baseline.

Figure 6 shows the same graph, but now with two trendlines obtained by applying a smoothing spline, one smoothing more than another. One of the two indicates an uninterrupted uptrend. The other shows a peak and a downtrend, along with wiggles around the other trendline. Note the smoothing algorithm is the same in both cases, differing only in the setting of a smoothing parameter. Which is correct? What is “correct”?

Figure 7 shows a time series of anomalies for Moscow, in Russia. Do these all show the same trends? These are difficult questions, but the changes seen in Figure 6 could be evidence of a warming “hiatus”. Note that, given Figure 6, whether or not there is a reduction in the rate of temperature increase depends upon the choice of a smoothing parameter. In a sense, that’s like having a major conclusion depend upon a choice of coordinate system, something we’ve collectively learned to suspect. We’ll have a more careful look at this in Section 5 next time. With that said, people have sought reasons and assessments of how important this phenomenon is. The answers have ranged from the conclusive “Global warming has stopped” to “Perhaps the slowdown is due to ‘natural variability”‘, to “Perhaps it’s all due to “natural variability” to “There is no statistically significant change”. Let’s see what some of the perspectives are.

Global surface temperature anomalies relative to a 1950-1980 baseline

Figure 6. Global surface temperature anomalies relative to a 1950-1980 baseline, with two smoothing splines printed atop.

Global surface temperature anomalies relative to a 1950-1980 baseline

Figure 7. Temperature anomalies for Moscow, Russia.

It is hard to find a scientific paper which advances the proposal that climate might be or might have been cooling in recent history. The earliest I can find are repeated presentations by a single geologist in the proceedings of the Geological Society of America, a conference which, like many, gives papers limited peer review [Ea2000, Ea2000, Ea2001, Ea2005, Ea2006a, Ea2006b, Ea2007, Ea2008]. It is difficult to comment on this work since their full methods are not available for review. The content of the abstracts appear to ignore the possibility of lagged response in any physical system.

These claims were summarized by Easterling and Wehner in 2009, attributing claims of a “pause” to cherry-picking of sections of the temperature time series, such as 1998-2008, and what might be called media amplification. Further, technical inconsistencies within the scientific enterprise, perfectly normal in its deployment and management of new methods and devices for measurement, have been highlighted and abused to parlay claims of global cooling [Wi2007, Ra2006, Pi2006]. Based upon subsequent papers, climate science seemed to not only need to explain such variability, but also to provide a specific explanation for what could be seen as a recent moderation in the abrupt warming of the mid-late 1990s. When such explanations were provided, appealing to oceanic capture, as described in Section 3, the explanation seemed to be taken as an acknowledge of a need and problem, when often they were provided in good faith, as explanation and teaching [Me2011, Tr2013, En2014].

Other factors besides the overwhelming one of oceanic capture contribute as well. If there is a great deal of melting in the polar regions, this process captures heat from the oceans. Evaporation captures heat in water. No doubt these return, due to the water cycle and latent heat of water, but the point is there is much opportunity for transfer of radiative forcing and carrying it appreciable distances.

Note that, given the overall temperature anomaly series, such as Figure 6, and specific series, such as the one for Moscow in Figure 7, moderation in warming is not definitive. It is a statistical question, and, pretending for the moment we know nothing of geophysics, a difficult one. But there certainly is no any problem with accounting for the Earth’s energy budget overall, even if the distribution of energy over its surface cannot be specifically explained [Ki1997, Tr2009, Pi2012]. This is not a surprise, since the equipartition theorem of physics fails to apply to a system which has not achieved thermal equilibrium.

An interesting discrepancy is presented in a pair of papers in 2013 and 2014. The first, by Fyfe, Gillet, and Zwiers, has the (somewhat provocative) title “Overestimated global warming over the past 20 years”. (Supplemental material is also available and is important to understand their argument.) It has been followed by additional correspondence from Fyfe and Gillet (“Recent observed and simulated warming”) applying the same methods to argue that even with the Pacific surface temperature anomalies and explicitly accommodating the coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 dataset, as emphasized by Kosaka and Xie there remain discrepancies between the surface temperature record and climate model ensemble runs. In addition, Fyfe and Gillet dismiss the problems of coverage cited by Cowtan and Way, arguing they were making “like for life” comparisons which are robust given the dataset and the region examined with CMIP5 models.

How these scientific discussions present that challenge and its possible significance is a story of trends, of variability, and hopefully of what all these investigations are saying in common, including the important contribution of climate models.

Next Time

Next time I’ll talk about ways of estimating trends, what these have to say about global warming, and the work of Fyfe, Gillet, and Zwiers comparing climate models to HadCRUT4 temperature data.

Bibliography

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West Antarctic Ice Sheet News

16 May, 2014

You may have heard the news: two teams of scientists claiming that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has been irreversibly destablized, leading to a slow-motion process that in some number of centuries will cause 3 meters of sea level rise.

“Today we present observational evidence that a large section of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has gone into irreversible retreat,” an author of one of the papers, Eric Rignot, a glaciologist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, said at a news conference recently. “It has passed the point of no return.”

A little context might help.

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is the ice sheet that covers Antarctica on the Western Hemisphere side of the Transantarctic Mountains. The bed of this ice sheet lies well below sea level. The ice gradually flows into floating ice shelves such as the Ross Ice Shelf and Ronne Ice Shelf, and also glaciers that dump ice into the Amundsen Sea. Click on the map to make it bigger, so you can see all these features.

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet contains about 2.2 million cubic kilometers of ice, enough to raise the world’s oceans about 4.8 meters if it all melted. To get a sense of how big it is, let’s visit a crack in one of its outlet glaciers.

In 2011, scientists working in Antarctica discovered a massive crack across the Pine Island Glacier, a major glacier in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. The crack was 30 kilometers long, 80 meters wide and 60 meters deep. The pictures above and below show this crack—the top one is from NASA, the bottom one was taken by an explorer named Forrest McCarthy.

By July 2013, the crack expanded to the point where a slab of ice 720 square kilometers in size broke off and moved into the Amundsen Sea.

However, this event is not the news! The news is about what’s happening at the bottom of the glaciers of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet sits in a bowl-shaped depression in the earth, with the bottom of the ice below sea level. Warm ocean water is causing the ice sitting along the rim of the bowl to thin and retreat. As the edge of the ice moves away from the rim and enters deeper water, it can retreat faster.

So, there could be a kind of tipping point, where the West Antarctic Ice Sheet melts faster and faster as its bottom becomes exposed to more water. Scientists have been concerned about this for decades. But now two teams of scientists claim that tipping point has been passed.

Here’s a video that illustrates the process:

And here’s a long quote from a short ‘news and analysis’ article by Thomas Sumner in the 16 May 2014 issue of Science:

A disaster may be unfolding—in slow motion. Earlier this week, two teams of scientists reported that Thwaites Glacier, a keystone holding the massive West Antarctic Ice Sheet together, is starting to collapse. In the long run, they say, the entire ice sheet is doomed. Its meltwater would raise sea levels by more than 3 meters.

One team combined data on the recent retreat of the 182,000-square-kilometer Thwaites Glacier with a model of the glacier’s dynamics to forecast its future. In a paper on page 735, they report that in as few as 2 centuries Thwaites Glacier’s edge will recede past an underwater ridge now stalling its retreat. Their models suggest that the glacier will then cascade into rapid collapse. The second team, writing in Geophysical Research Letters, describes recent radar mapping of West Antarctica’s glaciers and confirms that the 600-meter-deep ridge is the final obstacle before the bedrock underlying the glacier dips into a deep basin.

Because inland basins connect Thwaites Glacier to other major glaciers in the region, both research teams say its collapse would flood West Antarctica with seawater, prompting a near-complete loss of ice in the area over hundreds of years.

“The next stable state for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet might be no ice sheet at all,” says the Science paper’s lead author, glaciologist Ian Joughin of the University of Washington, Seattle. “Very crudely, we are now committed to global sea level rise equivalent to a permanent Hurricane Sandy storm surge,” says glaciologist Richard Alley of Pennsylvania State University, University Park, referring to the storm that ravaged the Caribbean and the U.S. East Coast in 2012. Alley was not involved in either study.

Where Thwaites Glacier meets the Amundsen Sea, deep warm water burrows under the ice sheet’s base, forming an ice shelf from which icebergs break off. When melt and iceberg creation outpace fresh snowfall farther inland, the glacier shrinks. According to the radar mapping released this week in Geophysical Research Letters from the European Remote Sensing satellite, from 1992 to 2011 Thwaites Glacier retreated 14 kilometers. “Nowhere else in Antarctica is changing this fast,” says University of Washington Seattle glaciologist Benjamin Smith, co-author of the Science paper.

To forecast Thwaites Glacier’s fate, the team plugged satellite and aircraft radar maps of the glacier’s ice and underlying bedrock into a computer model. In simulations that assumed various melting trends, the model accurately reproduced recent ice-loss measurements and churned out a disturbing result: In all but the most conservative melt scenarios, a glacial collapse has already started. In 200 to 500 years, once the glacier’s “grounding line”—the point at which the ice begins to float—retreats past the ridge, the glacier’s face will become taller and, like a tower of blocks, more prone to collapse. The retreat will then accelerate to more than 5 kilometers per year, the team says. “On a glacial timescale, 200 to 500 years is the blink of an eye,” Joughin says.

And once Thwaites is gone, the rest of West Antarctica would be at risk.

Eric Rignot, a climate scientist at the University of California, Irvine, and the lead author of the GRL study, is skeptical of Joughin’s timeline because the computer model used estimates of future melting rates instead of calculations based on physical processes such as changing sea temperatures. “These simulations ought to go to the next stage and include realistic ocean forcing,” he says. If they do, he says, they might predict an even more rapid retreat.

I haven’t had time to carefully read the relevant papers, which are these:

• Eric Rignot, J. Mouginot, M. Morlighem, H. Seroussi and B. Scheuchl, Widespread, rapid grounding line retreat of Pine Island, Thwaites, Smith and Kohler glaciers, West Antarctica from 1992 to 2011, Geophysical Research Letters, accepted 12 May 2014.

• Ian Joughin, Benjamin E. Smith and Brooke Medley, Marine ice sheet collapse potentially underway for the Thwaites glacier basin, West Antarctica, Science, 344 (2014), 735–738.

I would like to say something more detailed about them someday.

The paper by Eric Rignot et al. is freely available—just click on the title. Unfortunately, you can’t read the other paper unless you have a journal subscription. Sumner’s article which I quoted is also not freely available. I wish scientists and the journal Science took more seriously their duty to make important research available to the public.

Here’s a video that shows Pine Island Glacier, Thwaites Glacier and some other nearby glaciers:


The Stochastic Resonance Program (Part 1)

10 May, 2014

guest post by David Tanzer

At the Azimuth Code Project, we are aiming to produce educational software that is relevant to the Earth sciences and the study of climate. Our present software takes the form of interactive web pages, which allow you to experiment with the parameters of models and view their outputs. But to fully understand the meaning of a program, we need to know about the concepts and theories that inform it. So we will be writing articles to explain both the programs themselves and the math and science behind them.

In this two-part series, I’ll explain this program:

Stochastic resonance.

Check it out—it runs on your browser! It was created by Allan Erskine and Glyn Adgie. In the Azimuth blog article Increasing the Signal-to-Noise Ratio with More Noise, Glyn Adgie and Tim van Beek give a nice explanation of the idea of stochastic resonance, which includes some clear and exciting graphs.

My goal today is give a compact, developer-oriented introduction to stochastic resonance, which will set the context for the next blog article, where I’ll dissect the program itself. By way of introduction, I am a software developer with research training in computer science. It’s a new area for me, and any clarifications will be welcome!

The concept of stochastic resonance

Stochastic resonance is a phenomenon, occurring under certain circumstances, in which a noise source may amplify the effect of a weak signal. This concept was used in an early hypothesis about the timing of ice-age cycles, and has since been applied to a wide range of phenomena, including neuronal detection mechanisms and patterns of traffic congestion.

Suppose we have a signal detector whose internal, analog state is driven by an input signal, and suppose the analog states are partitioned into two regions, called “on” and “off” — this is a digital state, abstracted from the analog state. With a light switch, we could take the force as the input signal, the angle as the analog state, and the up/down classification of the angle as the digital state.

Consider the effect of a periodic input signal on the digital state. Suppose the wave amplitude is not large enough to change the digital state, yet large enough to drive the analog state close to the digital state boundary. Then, a bit of random noise, occurring near the peak of an input cycle, may “tap” the system over to the other digital state. So we will see a probability of state-transitions that is synchronized with the input signal. In a complex way, the noise has amplified the input signal.

But it’s a pretty funky amplifier! Here is a picture from the Azimuth library article on stochastic resonance:

Stochastic resonance has been found in the signal detection mechanisms of neurons. There are, for example, cells in the tails of crayfish that are tuned to low-frequency signals in the water caused by predator motions. These signals are too weak to cross the firing threshold for the neurons, but with the right amount of noise, they do trigger the neurons.

See:

Stochastic resonance, Azimuth Library.

Stochastic resonance in neurobiology, David Lyttle.

Bistable stochastic resonance and Milankovitch theories of ice-age cycles

Stochastic resonance was originally formulated in terms of systems that are bistable — where each digital state is the basin of attraction of a stable equilibrium.

An early application of stochastic resonance was to a hypothesis, within the framework of bistable climate dynamics, about the timing of the ice-age cycles. Although it has not been confirmed, it remains of interest (1) historically, (2) because the timing of ice-age cycles remains an open problem, and (3) because the Milankovitch hypothesis upon which it rests is an active part of the current research.

In the bistable model, the climate states are a cold, “snowball” Earth and a hot, iceless Earth. The snowball Earth is stable because it is white, and hence reflects solar energy, which keeps it frozen. The iceless Earth is stable because it is dark, and hence absorbs solar energy, which keeps it melted.

The Milankovitch hypothesis states that the drivers of climate state change are long-duration cycles in the insolation — the solar energy received in the northern latitudes — caused by periodic changes in the Earth’s orbital parameters. The north is significant because that is where the glaciers are concentrated, and so a sufficient “pulse” in northern temperatures could initiate a state change.

Three relevant astronomical cycles have been identified:

• Changing of the eccentricity of the Earth’s elliptical orbit, with a period of 100 kiloyears

• Changing of the obliquity (tilt) of the Earth’s axis, with a period of 41 kiloyears

• Precession (swiveling) of the Earth’s axis, with a period of 23 kiloyears

In the stochastic resonance hypothesis, the Milankovitch signal is amplified by random events to produce climate state changes. In more recent Milankovitch theories, a deterministic forcing mechanism is used. In a theory by Didier Paillard, the climate is modeled with three states, called interglacial, mild glacial and full glacial, and the state changes depend on the volume of ice as well as the insolation.

See:

Milankovitch cycle, Azimuth Library.

Mathematics of the environment (part 10), John Baez. This gives an exposition of Paillard’s theory.

Bistable systems defined by a potential function

Any smooth function with two local minima can be used to define a bistable system. For instance, consider the function V(x) = x^4/4 - x^2/2:

To define the bistable system, construct a differential equation where the time derivative of x is set to the negative of the derivative of the potential at x:

dx/dt = -V'(x) = -x^3 + x = x(1 - x^2)

So, for instance, where the potential graph is sloping upward as x increases, -V'(x) is negative, and this sends X(t) ‘downhill’ towards the minimum.

The roots of V'(x) yield stable equilibria at 1 and -1, and an unstable equilibrium at 0. The latter separates the basins of attraction for the stable equilibria.

Discrete stochastic resonance

Now let’s look at a discrete-time model which exhibits stochastic resonance. This is the model used in the Azimuth demo program.

We construct the discrete-time derivative, using the potential function, a sampled sine wave, and a normally distributed random number:

\Delta X_t = -V'(X_t) * \Delta t + \mathrm{Wave}(t) + \mathrm{Noise}(t) =
X_t (1 - X_t^2) \Delta t + \alpha * \sin(\omega t) + \beta * \mathrm{GaussianSample}(t)

where \Delta t is a constant and t is restricted to multiples of \Delta t.

This equation is the discrete-time counterpart to a continuous-time stochastic differential equation.

Next time, we will look into the Azimuth demo program itself.


New IPCC Report (Part 8)

22 April, 2014

guest post by Steve Easterbrook

(8) To stay below 2°C of warming, most fossil fuels must stay buried in the ground

Perhaps the most profound advance since the previous IPCC report is a characterization of our global carbon budget. This is based on a finding that has emerged strongly from a number of studies in the last few years: the expected temperature change has a simple linear relationship with cumulative CO2 emissions since the beginning of the industrial era:

(Figure SPM.10) Global mean surface temperature increase as a function of cumulative total global CO2 emissions from various lines of evidence. Multi-model results from a hierarchy of climate-carbon cycle models for each RCP until 2100 are shown with coloured lines and decadal means (dots). Some decadal means are indicated for clarity (e.g., 2050 indicating the decade 2041−2050). Model results over the historical period (1860–2010) are indicated in black. The coloured plume illustrates the multi-model spread over the four RCP scenarios and fades with the decreasing number of available models in RCP8.5. The multi-model mean and range simulated by CMIP5 models, forced by a CO2 increase of 1% per year (1% per year CO2 simulations), is given by the thin black line and grey area. For a specific amount of cumulative CO2 emissions, the 1% per year CO2 simulations exhibit lower warming than those driven by RCPs, which include additional non-CO2 drivers. All values are given relative to the 1861−1880 base period. Decadal averages are connected by straight lines.

(Figure SPM.10) Global mean surface temperature increase as a function of cumulative total global CO2 emissions from various lines of evidence. Multi-model results from a hierarchy of climate-carbon cycle models for each RCP until 2100 are shown with coloured lines and decadal means (dots). Some decadal means are indicated for clarity (e.g., 2050 indicating the decade 2041−2050). Model results over the historical period (1860–2010) are indicated in black. The coloured plume illustrates the multi-model spread over the four RCP scenarios and fades with the decreasing number of available models in RCP8.5. The multi-model mean and range simulated by CMIP5 models, forced by a CO2 increase of 1% per year (1% per year CO2 simulations), is given by the thin black line and grey area. For a specific amount of cumulative CO2 emissions, the 1% per year CO2 simulations exhibit lower warming than those driven by RCPs, which include additional non-CO2 drivers. All values are given relative to the 1861−1880 base period. Decadal averages are connected by straight lines.

(Click to enlarge.)

The chart is a little hard to follow, but the main idea should be clear: whichever experiment we carry out, the results tend to lie on a straight line on this graph. You do get a slightly different slope in one experiment, the “1% percent CO2 increase per year” experiment, where only CO2 rises, and much more slowly than it has over the last few decades. All the more realistic scenarios lie in the orange band, and all have about the same slope.

This linear relationship is a useful insight, because it means that for any target ceiling for temperature rise (e.g. the UN’s commitment to not allow warming to rise more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels), we can easily determine a cumulative emissions budget that corresponds to that temperature. So that brings us to the most important paragraph in the entire report, which occurs towards the end of the summary for policymakers:

Limiting the warming caused by anthropogenic CO2 emissions alone with a probability of >33%, >50%, and >66% to less than 2°C since the period 1861–1880, will require cumulative CO2 emissions from all anthropogenic sources to stay between 0 and about 1560 GtC, 0 and about 1210 GtC, and 0 and about 1000 GtC since that period respectively. These upper amounts are reduced to about 880 GtC, 840 GtC, and 800 GtC respectively, when accounting for non-CO2 forcings as in RCP2.6. An amount of 531 [446 to 616] GtC, was already emitted by 2011.

Unfortunately, this paragraph is a little hard to follow, perhaps because there was a major battle over the exact wording of it in the final few hours of inter-governmental review of the “Summary for Policymakers”. Several oil states objected to any language that put a fixed limit on our total carbon budget. The compromise was to give several different targets for different levels of risk.

Let’s unpick them. First notice that the targets in the first sentence are based on looking at CO2 emissions alone; the lower targets in the second sentence take into account other greenhouse gases, and other earth systems feedbacks (e.g. release of methane from melting permafrost), and so are much lower. It’s these targets that really matter:

• To give us a one third (33%) chance of staying below 2°C of warming over pre-industrial levels, we cannot ever emit more than 880 gigatonnes of carbon.

• To give us a 50% chance, we cannot ever emit more than 840 gigatonnes of carbon.

• To give us a 66% chance, we cannot ever emit more than 800 gigatonnes of carbon.

Since the beginning of industrialization, we have already emitted a little more than 500 gigatonnes. So our remaining budget is somewhere between 300 and 400 gigatonnes of carbon. Existing known fossil fuel reserves are enough to release at least 1000 gigatonnes. New discoveries and unconventional sources will likely more than double this. That leads to one inescapable conclusion:

Most of the remaining fossil fuel reserves must stay buried in the ground.

We’ve never done that before. There is no political or economic system anywhere in the world currently that can persuade an energy company to leave a valuable fossil fuel resource untapped. There is no government in the world that has demonstrated the ability to forgo the economic wealth from natural resource extraction, for the good of the planet as a whole. We’re lacking both the political will and the political institutions to achieve this. Finding a way to achieve this presents us with a challenge far bigger than we ever imagined.


You can download all of Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis here. Click below to read any part of this series:

  1. The warming is unequivocal.
  2. Humans caused the majority of it.
  3. The warming is largely irreversible.
  4. Most of the heat is going into the oceans.
  5. Current rates of ocean acidification are unprecedented.
  6. We have to choose which future we want very soon.
  7. To stay below 2°C of warming, the world must become carbon negative.
  8. To stay below 2°C of warming, most fossil fuels must stay buried in the ground.

Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis is also available chapter by chapter here:

  1. Front Matter
  2. Summary for Policymakers
  3. Technical Summary
    1. Supplementary Material

Chapters

  1. Introduction
  2. Observations: Atmosphere and Surface
    1. Supplementary Material
  3. Observations: Ocean
  4. Observations: Cryosphere
    1. Supplementary Material
  5. Information from Paleoclimate Archives
  6. Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles
    1. Supplementary Material
  7. Clouds and Aerosols

    1. Supplementary Material
  8. Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing
    1. Supplementary Material
  9. Evaluation of Climate Models
  10. Detection and Attribution of Climate Change: from Global to Regional
    1. Supplementary Material
  11. Near-term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability
  12. Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility
  13. Sea Level Change
    1. Supplementary Material
  14. Climate Phenomena and their Relevance for Future Regional Climate Change
    1. Supplementary Material

Annexes

  1. Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections
    1. Supplementary Material: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5
  2. Annex II: Climate System Scenario Tables
  3. Annex III: Glossary
  4. Annex IV: Acronyms
  5. Annex V: Contributors to the WGI Fifth Assessment Report
  6. Annex VI: Expert Reviewers of the WGI Fifth Assessment Report

New IPCC Report (Part 7)

18 April, 2014

guest post by Steve Easterbrook

(7) To stay below 2 °C of warming, the world must become carbon negative

Only one of the four future scenarios (RCP2.6) shows us staying below the UN’s commitment to no more than 2 ºC of warming. In RCP2.6, emissions peak soon (within the next decade or so), and then drop fast, under a stronger emissions reduction policy than anyone has ever proposed in international negotiations to date. For example, the post-Kyoto negotiations have looked at targets in the region of 80% reductions in emissions over say a 50 year period. In contrast, the chart below shows something far more ambitious: we need more than 100% emissions reductions. We need to become carbon negative:

(Figure 12.46) a) CO2 emissions for the RCP2.6 scenario (black) and three illustrative modified emission pathways leading to the same warming, b) global temperature change relative to preindustrial for the pathways shown in panel (a).

(Figure 12.46) a) CO2 emissions for the RCP2.6 scenario (black) and three illustrative modified emission pathways leading to the same warming, b) global temperature change relative to preindustrial for the pathways shown in panel (a).

The graph on the left shows four possible CO2 emissions paths that would all deliver the RCP2.6 scenario, while the graph on the right shows the resulting temperature change for these four. They all give similar results for temperature change, but differ in how we go about reducing emissions. For example, the black curve shows CO2 emissions peaking by 2020 at a level barely above today’s, and then dropping steadily until emissions are below zero by about 2070. Two other curves show what happens if emissions peak higher and later: the eventual reduction has to happen much more steeply. The blue dashed curve offers an implausible scenario, so consider it a thought experiment: if we held emissions constant at today’s level, we have exactly 30 years left before we would have to instantly reduce emissions to zero forever.

Notice where the zero point is on the scale on that left-hand graph. Ignoring the unrealistic blue dashed curve, all of these pathways require the world to go net carbon negative sometime soon after mid-century. None of the emissions targets currently being discussed by any government anywhere in the world are sufficient to achieve this. We should be talking about how to become carbon negative.

One further detail. The graph above shows the temperature response staying well under 2°C for all four curves, although the uncertainty band reaches up to 2°C. But note that this analysis deals only with CO2. The other greenhouse gases have to be accounted for too, and together they push the temperature change right up to the 2°C threshold. There’s no margin for error.


You can download all of Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis here. Click below to read any part of this series:

  1. The warming is unequivocal.
  2. Humans caused the majority of it.
  3. The warming is largely irreversible.
  4. Most of the heat is going into the oceans.
  5. Current rates of ocean acidification are unprecedented.
  6. We have to choose which future we want very soon.
  7. To stay below 2°C of warming, the world must become carbon negative.
  8. To stay below 2°C of warming, most fossil fuels must stay buried in the ground.

Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis is also available chapter by chapter here:

  1. Front Matter
  2. Summary for Policymakers
  3. Technical Summary
    1. Supplementary Material

Chapters

  1. Introduction
  2. Observations: Atmosphere and Surface
    1. Supplementary Material
  3. Observations: Ocean
  4. Observations: Cryosphere
    1. Supplementary Material
  5. Information from Paleoclimate Archives
  6. Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles
    1. Supplementary Material
  7. Clouds and Aerosols

    1. Supplementary Material
  8. Anthropogenic and Natural Radiative Forcing
    1. Supplementary Material
  9. Evaluation of Climate Models
  10. Detection and Attribution of Climate Change: from Global to Regional
    1. Supplementary Material
  11. Near-term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability
  12. Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility
  13. Sea Level Change
    1. Supplementary Material
  14. Climate Phenomena and their Relevance for Future Regional Climate Change
    1. Supplementary Material

Annexes

  1. Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections
    1. Supplementary Material: RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5
  2. Annex II: Climate System Scenario Tables
  3. Annex III: Glossary
  4. Annex IV: Acronyms
  5. Annex V: Contributors to the WGI Fifth Assessment Report
  6. Annex VI: Expert Reviewers of the WGI Fifth Assessment Report

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