I’ve been thinking hard about climate change since at least 2010. That’s why I started this blog. But the last couple years I’ve focused on basic research in network theory as a preliminary step toward green mathematics. Basic research is what I’m best at, and there are plenty of people working on the more immediate, more urgent aspects of climate change.
Indeed, after the Paris Agreement, I started hoping that politicians were taking this issue seriously and that we’d ultimately deal with it—even though I knew this agreement was not itself enough to keep warming below 2° C:
There is a troubling paradox at the heart of climate policy. On the one hand, nobody can doubt the historic success of the Paris Agreement. On the other hand, everybody willing to look can see the impact of our changing climate. People already face rising seas, expanding desertification and coastal erosion. They take little comfort from agreements to adopt mitigation measures and finance adaptation in the future. They need action today.
That is why the Emissions Gap Report tracks our progress in restricting global warming to 1.5 – 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by the end of this century. This year’s data shows that overall emissions are still rising, but more slowly, and in the case of carbon dioxide, hardly at all. The report foresees further reductions in the short term and increased ambition in the medium term. Make no mistake; the Paris Agreement will slow climate change. The recent Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol will do the same.
But not enough: not nearly enough and not fast enough. This report estimates we are actually on track for global warming of up to 3.4 degrees Celsius. Current commitments will reduce emissions by no more than a third of the levels required by 2030 to avert disaster. The Kigali Amendment will take off 0.5 degrees Celsius, although not until well after 2030. Action on short-lived climate pollutants, such as black carbon, can take off a further 0.5 degrees Celsius. This means we need to find another one degree from somewhere to meet the stronger, and safer, target of 1.5 degrees Celsius warming.
So, we must take urgent action. If we don’t, we will mourn the loss of biodiversity and natural resources. We will regret the economic fallout. Most of all, we will grieve over the avoidable human tragedy; the growing numbers of climate refugees hit by hunger, poverty, illness and conflict will be a constant reminder of our failure to deliver.
That’s from an annual report put out by the United Nations Environment Programme, or UNEP:
• United Nations Environment Programme, The Emissions Gap Report 2016.
As this report makes clear, we can bridge the gap and keep global warming below 2° C, if we work very hard.
But my limited optimism was shaken by the US presidential election, and especially by the choice of Myron Ebell to head the ‘transition team’ for the Environmental Protection Agency. For the US government to dismantle the Clean Power Plan and abandon the Paris Agreement would seriously threaten the fight against climate change.
Luckily, people already recognize that even with the Paris Agreement, a lot of work must happen at the ‘subnational’ level. This work will go on even if the US federal government gives up. So I want to learn more about it, and get involved somehow.
This is where the Under2 Coalition comes in.
The Under2 Coalition
California, Connecticut, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington have signed onto a spinoff of the Paris Climate Agreement. It’s called the Under2 Memorandum of Understanding, or Under2 MOU for short.
“Under 2” stands for two goals:
• under 2 degrees Celsius of global warming, and
• under 2 tonnes of carbon dioxide emitted per person per year.
These states have agreed to cut greenhouse gas emissions to 80-95% below 1990 levels by 2050. They’ve also agreed to share technology and scientific research, expand use of zero-emission vehicles, etc., etc.
And it’s not just US states that are involved in this! A total of 165 jurisdictions in 33 countries and six continents have signed or endorsed the Under2 MOU. Together, they form the Under2 Coalition. They represent more than 1.08 billion people and $25.7 trillion in GDP, more than a third of the global economy:
I’ll list the members, starting with ones near the US. If you go to the link you can find out exactly what each of these ‘sub-national entities’ are promising to do. In a future post, I’ll say more about the details, since I want Riverside to join this coalition. Jim Stuttard has already started a page about a city in the UK which is not a member of the Under2 Coalition, but has done a lot of work to figure out how to cut carbon emissions:
• Azimuth Wiki, Birmingham Green Commission.
This sort of information will be useful for other cities.
New York City
New York State
São Paulo City
São Paulo State
Pays de la Loire
Australian Capital Territory (ACT)
Alliance of Peaking Pioneer Cities (represents 23 cities)
Assemblée des Régions de Côte d’Ivoire (represents 33 subnationals)
Cross River State